China: The 'other' economic indicators

中国："另一个"经济指示器

China just told the world that it's economy is growing at 6.9%. Almost no one believes that.

中国告诉世界它的经济增速为6.9%.几乎没人相信这个数据。

The Communist Party in China values stability above all else. The Chinese government set a target of 7% economic growth this year, so it's no surprise that the country is reporting a figure very close to that.

中国的稳定性高于一切。今年，中国政府提供了7%的经济目标，所以，不必惊讶，中国发布的经济增速会非常接近这个数字。

"I once asked the premier of China: how reliable were Chinese statistics? He said not reliable, but they tell you which way the wind is blowing," says former ambassador Stapleton Roy, who is now at the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S.

前大使，现任基辛格中美关系研究所成员的斯泰普尔顿·罗伊说，"我曾经问过中国总理：中国统计数据中最可靠的部分是什么？他说，都不可靠，但是，它们能告诉你们方向。"

 

Frankly, the data coming out of China isn't as terrible as some feared over the summer.

坦白的说，中国的数据并没有夏天那么糟糕。

The Chinese stock market has stabilized -- it's actually up 15% this month alone.

中国股市已经稳定——本月，它独自上升了15%。

 

China economic growth is still massive

中国经济增长依然巨大。

It's still a lot of growth in the world's No. 2 economy.

这对世界第二大经济体来说，依然是一个很大的增长。

JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon summed it up well in an interview Monday on Bloomberg TV: "China has had 20 years of 10% growth uninterrupted, never before seen on this planet. They are going to have bumps in the road."

摩根大通公司CEO杰米·戴明在周一的彭博社采访时对其进行了总结："中国经济已经不间断的保持了20年10%的增速，此前在地球上从未发生过。在它们前进的路上即将遇到障碍。"

But, even 4% growth for China's $10 trillion economy is still $400 billion. Keep in mind that's actually a lot more in dollar terms than the days of 10% growth a decade ago, when China's economy was only $2 trillion.

但是，即使4%的增速对中国超过10万亿美元的经济规模来说，也有4000亿的增长。记住，这实际上比二十年前10%增速所创造的美元计价增长要多得多，当时，中国的经济规模只有2万亿美元。

 

But China still has real problems

但是，中国也有实质性问题

The reality is China still has real problems, but they are unlikely to tank the Chinese economy, let alone the world economy, in the coming months.

实际上，中国仍然有实质性问题，但是，它们不可能在数月内让中国经济沉没，更不必说全球经济，

The twin challenges China faces are:

中国所要面对的两重挑战是：

How to build an economy that does more than produce cheap stuff

如何让经济不再以廉价商品为支柱

Lots of debt. The Wall Street Journal has dubbed it a "debt bomb."

过多债务。华尔街邮报称之为"债务炸弹。"

China's economy was built on making things for extremely low rates and exporting them around the world. Now China wants to transition to a middle class economy which is powered by its own citizens buying goods and services.

中国经济之前建立在生产极度廉价商品并向全世界出口的基础上。现在，中国希望转型至中产阶级经济，依靠它自己的国民购买商品和服务来实现。

"That transition will be a lot rockier than people think," prominent hedge fund manager Jim Chanos told CNN recently. Chanos, who was one of the first to spot Enron's problems, has been betting big against China in recent years.

杰出的对冲基金经理吉姆·查诺斯（最早指出安然公司问题的人之一，并在近几年来看衰中国）最近告诉CNN,"这种转型远比人们想象的更加艰难。"

China's debt bomb is ticking

中国债务炸弹正在进入倒计时

But the larger issue that Chanos has been warning about is debt.

但是，中国更大的问题是它的债务预警。

The federal government has a lot of cash on hand. But local governments, banks and companies have borrowed heavily.

中央政府握有大量现金。但是，地方政府，银行和企业已经负债累累。

A recent Mckinsey Global Institute report shows China's debt has skyrocketed since 2007. It's not quite as bad as Greece, but it has grown debt faster than Spain. China's debt-to-GDP ratio is now 240%, McKinsey says.

麦肯锡全球研究所近来提供的一个报告称，中国债务在2007年开始剧烈增长。麦肯锡说，并没有希腊那么糟糕，但却比西班牙增速更快。中国的债务——gdp比例现在是240%。

At some point that debt will come due and some organizations might not be able to pay.

在某一时刻，债务将会到期，而一些组织并没有能力偿还。

"You have a 1-2 punch coming in next decade [for China]: An aging society and debt," says Scissors, the AEI scholar. "It's a lethal combination for any country."

"在接下来的二十年里，你将以1-2比例进行对冲【针对中国】：一个老龄化社会和债务，"美国企业研究所专家德里克说，"这对任何社会都是致命的。"

This isn't really weighing on the markets now. But that time will come. Hopefully it doesn't strike when the rest of the world is struggling.

这并没有对当前的市场造成太大压力。但是，随着时间的推移。祈祷它不会对正在挣扎的世界其他国家带来过大冲击。