As a single figure it starkly highlightsthe environmental cost of China'srapid industrialisation over the last two decades, but also tells of Beijing's strategicvulnerabilities.

中国20年来的工业化发展在环境上付出了巨大代价，而且也道出了中国存在的战略性弱点。

If this is to be the century of water andfood security, then Chinais at a huge disadvantage, the disadvantage is not just confined to agricultureand the country's ability to feed itself.

如果本世纪是食品和水资源世纪，那么中国就面临了巨大的不利条件，这种不利并非只局限于农业和中国的粮食自给能力。

China'swater problems are now so severe they will begin to shape global energy marketsand should influence the Pacific basin's trade policy and even defence posture.

中国所面临的水问题也非常严重，从而将塑造全球能源市场，也应该会对太平洋地区的贸易政策，甚至是国防姿态造成影响。

 

 

In effect, China in the middle of 2015, notonly is it in reliant on imported oil, natural gas and iron ore to power itseconomy, but its water problems mean it must increasingly look overseas forfood supplies.

实际上，现在的中国经济不仅依赖要石油天然气以及铁矿石的进口，而且中国所面临的水资源问题也意味着中国需要进口食品。

This reliance on imports led Geoff Raby, Australia'sformer Ambassador to Beijing, to label Chinaa “constrained super power” and by extension a far less threatening actor inthe region, since for example trade sanctions would devastate the Chineseeconomy.

中国对进口的依赖使得澳大利亚前驻华大使Geoff Raby将中国形容为一个“受到约束的超级强国”，因此引申来看，中国并不会对该地区造成太大的威胁，因为比如采取贸易制裁这样的方式就可以摧毁中国的经济。

Consider the situation with pork, thecountry's number one source of protein and a possible early casualty from itslack of water. Chinais largely self sufficient in this area, but supply is under threat due towater shortages across the North China Plain, the country's main food bowl.

比如猪肉供应，是中国人的主要蛋白质来源，而水危机也最先可能影响到猪肉的供应。中国在猪肉上大抵自足，但是由于中国北方（中国的主要食品来源地）水资源的缺乏，导致猪肉的供应受到威胁。

This is China's problem: it does not have a lack of water so much, but a lack water in the right place.

中国的问题是：并不是缺水，而是水资源分布不均。

 

They will import more food and fuel until they run out of money.
Then they'll let their people starve.
Watch and see.
中国永远都无法成为一个发达国家。像所有统制经济一样，中国很快将退回到原来的状态。 他们将进口更多的食物和燃料，直到花光所有钱。 然后他们的人民就得挨饿了。 等着瞧。 So China needs food, energy and iron.
And Australiahas food, energy and iron.
Woohoo so the A$55 billion in wealth that is transferred to Australia every year from China will only increase.

 

中国需要食物，能源和铁矿石。 而澳洲就有食物，能源和铁矿石。 如此看来每年从中国向澳洲转移的500亿美元只会增加不会减少了。 Chinawill remain a military and economic superpower and will not fade away.
“Too big to fail” but it will stumble several times in the coming years...
中国未来将面临巨大的问题，人口在年龄性别比例上的差异），污染，规划不良的、没人想要的巨大城市。。。 但是中国将继续成为军事和经济上的超级强国，中国也不会慢慢消失。 “中国太大而不能倒”，但是在未来中国将面临很多困难。
China recently lent Venezuela$5 billion. I doubt they will ever see that again.
Venezuelais in such a desperate state that motorcyclists are being murdered for thespare parts in their bikes. (Reuters)
中国最近借给委内瑞拉50亿美元。我觉得中国拿不回来了。 委内瑞拉目前陷入了绝望的境地，有人为了获得汽车零部件而谋杀汽车驾驶者 China won't go down the pan for many reasons, the main one being that theUS economy and China's are almost irreversible linked, the US will not allow China to fail, but they willstumble for many years to come.
There’s no doubt that enormous gains have been made by capitalism in China; theChinese and American economies are remarkably interdependent. When a veteran ofthe labour movement in the States wondered what had happened to the Americanworking class the answer was plain: the American working class is in China now. Butit’s also the case that Chinaisn’t even remotely close to replacing the US. All the figures now produced byeconomists show that, where it counts, the Chinese are still way behind. If youlook at national shares of world millionaire households in 2012: the UnitedStates, 42.5 per cent; Japan, 10.6 per cent; China, 9.4 per cent; Britain, 3.7per cent; Switzerland, 2.9 per cent; Germany, 2.7 per cent; Taiwan, 2.3 percent; Italy, 2 per cent; France, 1.9 per cent. So in terms of economic strengththe United Statesis still doing well. In many crucial markets – pharmaceuticals, aerospace, computersoftware, medical equipment – the US is dominant; the Chinese arenowhere. The figures in 2010 showed that three-quarters of China’s top twohundred exporting companies – and these are Chinese statistics – areforeign-owned. There is a great deal of foreign investment in China, often from neighbouring countries like Taiwan.Foxconn, which produces computers for Apple in China, is a Taiwanese company.
The notion that the Chinese are suddenly going to rise to power and replace theUnited Statesis baloney. It’s implausible militarily; it’s implausible economically
有几个原因导致中国不可能崩溃。首先，一个主要原因是美国经济和中国经济是紧密相连的，所以美国是不会允许中国崩溃的，但是未来中国将面临一系列的困难。 毫无疑问，资本主义在中国赚的盆满钵满；中美经济严重依赖对方。当美国工人运动的老手想知道美国的劳动阶层到底发生了什么事情时，答案是明显的：美国的工人阶级现在在中国。但中国也无法替代美国。经济学家们现在得出的数据表明中国还是落后于美国的。如果你看看2012年各国的百万富翁比例就知道了：美国占42.5%，日本10.6%，中国9.4%，英国3.7%，瑞士2.9%，德国2.7%，台湾2.3%，意大利2%，法国1.9%。所以就经济力量来看，美国仍然最强。在很多重要的市场上——制药，航空航天，电脑软件，医疗器械——美国依然占据主导地位；而中国一无所有。2010年的数据表明中国最大的200家出口企业中有四分之三是外资公司（这还是中国方面提供的数据）。中国吸引了大量的外国投资，通常来自邻国，比如台湾。在中国为苹果生产电脑的富士康就是一家台湾企业。 认为中国将崛起并替代美国，这是在胡扯。不管是在经济上还是军事上，这都是不现实的。