I think cold war paradigms of super-power/hyper-power don't really apply to today's inextricably global economy.

我认为冷战时期的超级大国的这种模式已经不适用于今天浑然一体的世界经济了。

 

[–]LostinSZChina 28 指標 3 天 前
The classic definition of a superpower is a state that projects global power on the basis of economic, military, diplomatic, or 'soft power' influence, often in more than one area of the globe. By this definition, then China would not be a superpower.
China could be called an emerging power, or a potential superpower, but they are not there yet.

传统上对超级大国的定义是：在经济，军事，外交，软实力等方面产生全球影响力的国家。参照这一定义，中国不是超级大国。
中国可以被称为一个新兴大国，或潜在的超级大国。但是，他们还不是超级大国。

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[–]TheMediumPanda 4 指標 3 天 前
China can do none of the four.

那四点，中国一个也没有达到。

[–]xiefeilaga 20 指標 3 天 前
I'd say they're beginning to have the ability to project power in the first and third categories. It's not strong yet, but they are able to make their presence felt in a lot of the world.

我想说，中国开始在第一和第三各方面（经济和外交）展现影响力。他们还不够强，但是他们能在全球大部分地区显示自身的存在。

[–]Individual99991 6 指標 3 天 前
I'd agree with that.

我很同意这一点。

[–]babamcribMongolia 5 指標 3 天 前
Economically they absolutely are a superpower. In terms of international loans and world trade China is on par with (arguably greater) than the U.S.

经济方面，中国毫无疑问是超级大国。中国在国际借贷和世界贸易方面和美国势均力敌，甚至更胜一筹。

[–]nikatnightUnited States 1 指標 2 天 前*
They have to have decent per capita income and GDP to be considered super in economic terms.

要成为经济超级大国，他们得拥有体面的人均收入和GDP才行。

[–]goin_dangUnited States[S] 2 指標 1 天 前
My goodness they better have only 300 million people by then. Can you imagine how unimaginably powerful China would be with roughly the same ppp as the US but with 1 or may be 1.5 billion people???

天啊，希望他们届时只有3亿人口。你能想象中国有着和美国一样的PPP（购买力平价指数）、但却拥有10亿或者15亿人口时是多么的强大吗？？

[–]nikatnightUnited States 1 指標 1 天 前
Yeah, it would be kind of like the EU.
And note that I didn't say PPP but per capita income.

是的，就像欧盟一样。但是我说的不是PPP，而是人均收入。

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[–]Louis-R-Backhome 1 指標 3 天 前
They can't buy unless someone is willing to sell.

要是没人卖给他们，他们也买不到啊。

[–]cosmicturtles 3 指標 3 天 前
BWAHAHAHAH!...my friend have you visited south american continent recently? even the oxygen is for sale in this country:
http://www.guyanareddfund.org/
and so on and so on
brazil: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/bra/
colombia: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/col/

朋友，你最近有来过南美吗？ 在这个国家，即使是氧气都可以拿来卖。
请参考一下网站： http://www.guyanareddfund.org/

and so on and so on
brazil: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/bra/
colombia: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/col/

[–]Louis-R-Backhome 1 指標 3 天 前
None of this changes the accuracy of what I wrote.

这些都不能改变我所说内容的准确性。

[–]hittintheairplane 0 指標 3 天 前
That doesn't push them into superpower status. When Che Guevara sought to spread the revolutio to Africa and South America did that make Cuba a super power? There's varying degrees of influence.

那也不能把中国送上超级大国的宝座。切格瓦拉（阿根廷马克思主义革命家）寻求过在非洲和南美传播革命，那古巴因此而成为超级大国了吗？ 影响力有很多层级。

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[–]xiefeilaga 3 指標 3 天 前
I'm not arguing that they are a superpower

我不认为中国是超级强国。

[–]mistified604 0 指標 3 天 前
I wouldn't call it regional. There is news in Canada where CSIS is reporting Beijing influence in Canadian politics.

我不认为中国只是一个区域强国。加拿大的新闻说CSIS（国际战略中心研究所）报告了北京对加拿大政治的影响力。

[–]hittintheairplane 1 指標 3 天 前
Israel influences US policy. Are they stronger than a regional power?

以色列影响着美国的政策，他们比区域性大国更强大吗？

[–]TheMediumPanda -1 指標 3 天 前
There are steps, sure. China's problem with diplomacy is that it is currently linked to subtle -and sometimes less subtle- threats of economic sanctions and trade restrictions against offending countries. When the export orientated manufacturing industry picks up pace in moving to SE Asian instead of China, the CPC's diplomatic initiatives will be easier called by many countries. Basically, they'll be less afraid telling China where to stick it.

事情是一步步来的。中国的目前的外交问题是中国会对冒犯性的国家发出微妙的经济制裁或者贸易限制方面的威胁。当出口型制造业加速转移到东南亚的时候，中共的外交举措将被很多国家识破。基本上，他们在应对中国时将不再那么害怕。

[–]ArK047Canada 9 指標 3 天 前
I don't think China is a superpower, and I honestly hope it doesn't become one. Being a "superpower" is saddled with so many expectations that it'll look worse rather than better, in my opinion.

我不认为中国是超级大国，老实说，我也不希望他成为一个超级大国。作为一个超级大国，要承载太多的期望，这让事情看起来更糟。这就是我的看法啦。

[–]EddieMcDowallEngland 9 指標 3 天 前
I don't think China is a superpower, but more to the point, I genuinely don't think that the Chinese government have any interest in becoming one. They seek to be able to boss it around the S. China sea and project soft power and industrial relations into the developing world, but I don't detect any desire to become a USA / USSR mkII.
Then again I've been wrong before, just ask my bookie!

我不认为中国是一个超级大国，更确切的说，我真的不认为中国政府有兴趣成为超级大国。他们寻求的是统治南中国海，创造软实力，和发展中国家发展工业关系。我没有发现他们要成为美国和前苏联那样的愿望。
但是，我之前也猜错过啦！

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[–]cuginhamer 1 指標 3 天 前
I agree they don't have that "dominate my sphere of the globe" desire now, but it's easy for me to imagine that a few decades down the line--if China's financial and military power continues to grow strong and fast--a political movement to use that power will emerge.

我同意你说的，他们现在没有"统治我的地球"这样的欲望。但是我的猜想是，再过几十年，如果中国的经济和军事力量持续快速增长变强，他们可能会利用这种强大的力量来实现自己的政治愿望。

[–]derintellectual 1 指標 3 天 前
China has always been inward looking country historically. Even when they had the chance to dominate Central Asia, they didn't because it was too much of hassle for them trying to take so many diverse groups into it's dominion and controlling them effectively. I.e look at Xinjiang.

历史上的中国从来都是内向型国家。他们即使有机会统治中亚，也放弃了，因为要把如此多的不容族群收归其高效统治之下，这对他们来说太麻烦了。具体参照新疆。

[–]cuginhamer 2 指標 2 天 前
If they were "always" inward looking and disinterested in p?ojecting power, Xinjiang and Tibet wouldn't be part of the country. If they were 100% inward looking now, they wouldn't have politicians talking about growing to become a responsible player in international disputes or TV shows constantly discussing plans for new Chinese aircraft carriers. It's not out of the question that power would go to their heads and they might start building a semi exclusive sphere of economic and political influence with a global network of technocratic/dictatorship states.

如果中国从来都是内向型国家，对投放影响力不感兴趣的话，新疆和西藏就不会是中国的一部分。如果他们现在100%内向，他们的领导人就不会说要在国际争议中扮演负责任的角色了，电视节目里也不会持续的讨论建造新航母了。他们的脑袋可能会被权力冲昏从而开始在全球范围内的独裁国家网络之内构建一定的经济政治影响。。

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[–]derintellectual 2 指標 2 天 前
Xinjiang and Tibet and there for border defence reasons to protect against Russia and India. That's why it's always been tough for minorities with them.

新疆和西藏是中国在中俄，中印边界的防御工事。这也是为啥少数民族很难和他们相处。

[–]Firecrackerhan 6 指標 3 天 前
Not yet, I think it will take at least another 30 years.

还没呢。我觉得至少还得过30年。

[–]Australosaurus 8 指標 3 天 前
China will likely end up as a former would-be superpower.

中国很可能将步前任自命超级大国（苏联）的后尘。

[–]FortunaCaecaEstChina 3 指標 3 天 前
It already is, and has been since the Battle of Talas in 751AD imho.

自从公元751年的Talas（恒罗斯，哈萨克西北城市）战役以来，中国就已经是超级强国了，现在也是。

[–]tigertigerduckduckEuropean Union 16 指標 3 天 前
If it will be a superpower then at most one like the Soviet Union. A superpower which is feared rather than loved. It's limited to military intimidation and checkbook diplomacy and the fact that other nations economically depend on it.
Ideologically and politically China has nothing desirable to export. Culturally there's also very little to export than food and past glory. Contemporary art, music and movies are quite uninteresting to most people as long as there is no creative freedom and everything has to go past censors and the propaganda departments. And, at most, the (mainland)Chinese way of life can be seen as a stepping stone towards the Western way of life, rather than as an end. Not even the Honk Kong people want to follow the mainland way of life.
Having a full bank account to sponsor poorer countries and to buy military hardware is a good start. But to be a true superpower China needs more than a full bank account. For that China needs true friends and a way of life other people want to adopt and fight for. But I don't see anyone fighting for "the Chinese way of life" any time soon, other than the mainland Chinese themselves.

如果中国成为一个超级大国，那么至多也只是像前苏联那样的只会让人恐惧而不是让人爱的超级大国。中国就仅限于军事威胁和支票外交，还有就是其他国家在经济上依赖中国。
中国的意识形态和政治思想都没啥值得输出的。文化上，除了食物和过往的荣光，也是这样。现代艺术，音乐和电影对大部分人没有吸引力，因为没有创造的自由，所有东西都要经过宣传部门的审查。中国大陆人的生活方式至多是其通往西方生活方式的一个阶段，而不是其终极阶段。甚至连香港居民也不愿过这样的生活。
有足够的银行存款去资助穷困国家并购买军事硬件是一个好的开端。 但是要成为一个超级大国，中国光有足够的钱款是不够的。要想成为超级强国，中国需要真正的朋友，需要一种别的国家的人所向往并愿意为之奋斗的生活方式。但是，除了中国大陆人，我没有看到其他人在为这种"中国生活方式"而奋斗。

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[–]dstz 7 指標 3 天 前
The global image of the United States is still better than China's, but summing up that the US is "loved" and China is "feared" sounds kind of tone deaf to what's happening in the world.

美国的全球形象仍然比中国的好。但" 美国让人爱，而中国让人怕"，这样的观点听起来像是对世界上正在发生的事情熟视无睹。

[–]samppaaz 3 指標 3 天 前*
I have grass root level experience about the lack of "soft power", I study Chinese as a minor at the Confucius institute at my university and basically we had like 15 students when it started, and when course finished we had like 6 remaining(me included). Wonder how many people will follow to the Chinese 2 course as I intend to. If you look at the Japanese language courses here, all are basically full every time and you might not even get in if you enroll late. Also I was looking at the exchange study opportunities to China and saw my university's exchange contracts, basically there is some competition to Peking Uni and Tsinghua but for example no one applied to Fudan last year. Meanwhile all the exchange spots to Japanese universities are full ALWAYS, even the lesser known universities and not just Tokyo University etc.
We watched some old Chinese movies at class a few times, while I am kind of interested in the cultural revolution and such but does it really interest the large masses like the Japanese or Korean pop culture, I very much doubt it. I believe the Chinese leadership doesn't really understand properly how "soft power" works, but they are still pouring HUGE amount of money into it. Question is, what should China do to improve it's soft power?

作为一个草根，我也经历了他们软实力的缺失。我在我们大学的孔子学院选修汉语，开课的时候，基本上只有15个学生；而课程结束时，只有包括我在内的6个人了。 想想会有多少人会像我一样上那两节汉语课呢？ 再看看我们这儿的日语课，每次基本上都是满员，如果迟到了根本就进不去。我也在寻求去中国做交换生的机会，我看过我们学校的交换协议，会有人竞争清华北大的交换机会，而去年就没人申请复旦大学。同时，到日本大学的所有交换机会都是满员，甚至是那些不像东京大学那样的知名学府。
我们在课堂上看过几次中国的老电影，而我却对中国的文化大革命有点兴趣。他真的像日本或者韩国的流行文化那样吸引大众吗？这一点，我非常怀疑。我认为中国的领导层根本不懂"软实力"是如何运作的，他们却还在往里面投入大量的金钱。问题是，中国该怎样提升自身的软实力。

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[–]derintellectual 2 指標 3 天 前
Firstly, China needs to find a target market and stick to it. Secondly, the leadership needs to understand they can't restrict content and at the same time expecting it to flourish.

首先，中国得找到一个目标市场，并坚持下去。其次，领导层需要知道他们不能在限制内容的同时又希望它得以繁荣。

[–]xiefeilaga 1 指標 2 天 前
I have criticized the Confucius Institute a lot in this sub, but I just want to point out that going from 15 students to 6 is actually pretty normal. Chinese is hard in the beginning, and a lot of students drop out rather than let it drag down their GPAs. We had a similar attrition rate in my university Chinese class, and we had a lot of things (like an excellent teacher and well-crafted syllabus) that Confucius Institutes generally don't.

我在这个论坛上多次批评过孔子学院了。但是我想指出的是，学生人数从15人锐减到6人，这是再正常不过的了。 汉语很难入门，所以很多学生选择放弃，不想让汉语拖累了平均成绩。我们学校的汉语课也有相同的退学率，但是我们的汉语课也有一般孔子学院所不具备的东西，那就是超棒的老师以及编排合理的课程表。

[–]goin_dangUnited States[S] 2 指標 1 天 前
Chinese is hard in the beginning,
Hmmm? Harder than Japanese?
Chinese is hard, yes. But once you get hang of it, it's fairly straight forward. You can basically put any verb and noun together and it makes sense (as long as it is logical), like the word drive, you can drive a car, a tank and a steamboat. But you can't say drive an airplane in English, while you can in Chinese. If you managed to memorize 2000 Chinese characters in 3 maybe 4 years, you would be on the fast lane.
Japanese on the other hand, is way more complicated. there are 71 letters (including diacritics) to begin with, and 3000 kanji in regular use, with each one having a range of meanings, many of them can be pronounced in more ways than one.

汉语入门很难，那有日语难吗？
是的，汉语很难学。但是一旦你入门，后面就一马平川，畅通无阻了。基本上，任何的动词和名词结合到一起 就能表意（只要有逻辑），就像drive这个词儿，你可以开车，开坦克，开气垫船。你不能在英语里说开飞机，但是汉语里就可以。如果你能在三四年的时间里记住2000个汉字，那你就走上了快车道。
相反，日语就要复杂的多，它有71个字母（包括变音符号）和3000个常用的日本汉字，每一个日本汉字都有多个意思，其中的大多数又有不止一种发音方法。

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[–]xiefeilaga 1 指標 1 天 前
Japanese does sound harder, but Chinese is hard enough to scare a lot of people away, especially in the beginning when it's just sinking in how different it is from Western languages. The attrition rate mentioned above is pretty common, especially when GPA's are on the line

日语听起来的确要难一点，但是汉语也足够难，难到吓退了很多人。尤其是刚开始的时候，想想中西方语言是多么的不同。上面提到的退学率是很普遍的，尤其当你要考虑平均分数的时候。

[–]samppaaz 1 指標 2 天 前
I think my teacher was pretty good. Only thing I really can criticize is that she should have given more writing assignments, those were quite sparse compared to other types of work. Writing still remains my weakest point.

我的老师就很好。我只有一件事要批评一下，那就是她给的书面作业和别的作业比起来太少了，应该多布置点。我的书写还很弱。

[–]derintellectual 3 指標 3 天 前
You nailed it.

一语中的。

[–]goin_dangUnited States[S] -1 指標 3 天 前
But I don't see anyone fighting for "the Chinese way of life" any time soon, other than the mainland Chinese themselves.
Seeing how the richest and the brightest of the Chinese are fleeing out of China for the west, I'd say NOT even the mainland Chinese themselves.
However most Chinese do try to live just like they did in mainland after having settled down in America, usually after realizing how ultimately it is their backward culture caused all the problems, not necessarily any political ideology alone. Quite a dystopian experience.

"但是，除了中国大陆人，我没有看到其他人为这种"中国生活方式"而奋斗。"
看看中国最富有，最聪慧的人是怎样逃离中国，向往西方的，我想说即使是中国大陆人也不喜欢他们的这种生活方式。
然而大多数的中国人在美国定居之后，通常努力过着他们在中国大陆的那种生活，因为他们意识到他们落后的文化就造成了所有的麻烦，不仅仅在政治意识形态方面。多么现实的体验啊。