澳大利亚：目前别相信中国已经无望了的故事
2015-11-30 11:46:21
Don't buy the China doomand gloom stories just yet龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
目前别信中国已经前景黯淡了的故事
目前别信中国已经前景黯淡了的故事
Is the Chinese economy slowing down or melting down? Youdon't have to go far to find someone purporting to know a lot more about Chinathan you do, who's making the most apocalyptic predictions.
中国经济在放缓或是在坍塌吗？你并不需要走很远，也许在你附近，就能发现有人声称比你更了解中国，而大部分的“世界末日预言”就是这些人所散布的。
And who knows? Maybe one day they'll be right.But I'll wait for it to happen before I start worrying.
而且谁知道呢？也许有一天他们就说对了。但是在我等到那一天到来之前，我是不会为此担心的。
By the same token, to say China is"slowing" seems a bit euphemistic. Being a developing country youcan't say it's in recession the way you might say it of an advanced economy,because developing economies rarely experience an actual contraction in realgross domestic product.
同样地，说中国（经济）“正在放缓”似乎是有点委婉了。它作为一个发展中国家，你就不能像说一个发达经济体正在衰退一样来说它，因为发展中国家很少会经历真正实际意义上的国内生产总值紧缩。
At their worst they justgrow at rates that, by their standards, are pretty bad, but by ours we'd bevery pleased to have. In that sense it seems likely China is in orentering its own version of a recession.
Its rate of growth has been slowing for morethan a year, it probably has more slowing to do, and with a bit of bad luck itcould slow a lot more. At worst we're talking about growth in GDP slowing tomaybe 4 per cent a year.
The biggest problem – as the doomsayers havelong been saying – is the "overhang" from China's long-running real estateboom, in which far more apartments were built than there were people wanting tobuy them.
Now housing construction has come to a halt invarious parts of China,and it won't resume until the existing stock of empty homes is finally soldoff. That could take at least a year, probably two. So the economy won't startto pick up anytime soon.
Limited housing construction means weak ordeclining growth in the manufacture of housing materials such as crude steel,cement and plate glass.
That's not the whole story, but it does mean theweakness is concentrated in construction and manufacturing, which just happento be the main components of "industrial production" – an economicindicator the world's financial markets pay great attention to, not leastbecause it's published monthly.
Trouble is, industrial production ain't easy tomeasure. It's particularly hard to do in developing countries, which don't havethe bureaucratic infrastructure we have and where the shape of the economykeeps changing, not to mention the extra problems in measuring it monthlyrather than quarterly.
This has prompted some in the markets to suspecta conspiracy rather than a stuff-up, and allege the Chinese authorities aremaking the numbers up. They may not be as reliable as we'd like, but don'tbelieve that.
Another thing to remember – as people in themarket tend to forget – is that industrial production accounts for only about45 per cent of Chinese GDP. The remaining 55 per cent is in a lot better shape,as a Reserve Bank assistant governor, Dr Christopher Kent, argued in a speechthis week.
By the way, if you're looking for someone totrust on Chinayou could do worse than our central bank. It's well aware of the importance of China to our international prospects and so putsa lot more personpower than most into studying it: six or seven economists in Sydney, plus another two attached to our embassy in Beijing.
Kent says that although the weakness in China's property and manufacturing sectors isclearly of concern to commodity exporters like Australia,there are a number of countervailing forces supporting broader activity in China.
"First, growth in the services sector[worth about 45 per cent of GDP] has been resilient, and should continue to beassisted by a shift in demand towards services as incomes rise," he says.
"Second, growth in household consumptionhas also been stable in recent quarters, aided by the growth in new jobs. Ofcourse, such outcomes cannot be taken for granted; if the industrial weaknessis sustained, it might eventually affect household incomes and spending.
"Third, Chinese policymakers have respondedto lower growth by easing monetary policy [access to loans] and approvingadditional infrastructure investment projects.
"They have scope to provide further supportif needed, although they may be reticent to do too much if that compromiseslonger-term goals, such as placing the financial system on a more sustainablefooting."
So what does this mean for us? The substantialslowing in industrial production has contributed to the further decline thisyear in the prices we get for our exports of coal and iron ore. (Of course, thebigger reason for the lower prices we're getting is the substantial increase inthe supply of these commodities from places such as Australia.)
Kent says that what transpires with China's industrial production, and in Asia more broadly, will have a big influence on how muchfurther commodity prices fall.
And the changing nature of China's development – a higherproportion of services and lower proportion of goods – limits the potential forcommodity prices to go back up.
But here's the good news: Kent reminds us that the shift in demand towardsservices and Western agricultural products in Chinaand Asia more broadly presents newopportunities for Australian exporters.
As recently as the mid-noughties, China'sGDP was growing at the rate of 10 per cent. This is why money-market types areshocked to hear it's now growing by only 6.5 per cent, let alone 4 per cent.
But this just shows that even money-market typescan be innumerate. As the distinguished former economic journalist AnatoleKaletsky has reminded us, China'sGDP today is $US10.3 trillion ($14.5 trillion).
In 2005 it was $US2.3 trillion. So even just 4per cent of $US10.3 trillion is much more than 10 per cent of $US2.3 trillion.
To the Chinese, what matters most is the rate atwhich GDP is growing. To the rest of us, however, what matters is the size ofthe absolute addition the Chinese are contributing to gross world product.
在他们最糟糕的时候，他们都有这样的增长速度，就他们的标准而言，这是非常差的，但是就我们的标准而言，如果有这样的增长速度，那我们会非常高兴的。这样看来，中国似乎只是进入了或是正在进入它们自己观点中的“衰退”而已。
Its rate of growth has been slowing for morethan a year, it probably has more slowing to do, and with a bit of bad luck itcould slow a lot more. At worst we're talking about growth in GDP slowing tomaybe 4 per cent a year.
它的增长速度已经放缓一年多了，可能它还有更多要放缓的事情去做，再加上一点坏运气，它还可以放得更缓。我们正在谈论的最糟糕的的事情就是，国民生产总值的增长率放缓至一年4个百分点。
The biggest problem – as the doomsayers havelong been saying – is the "overhang" from China's long-running real estateboom, in which far more apartments were built than there were people wanting tobuy them.
最大的问题——就像末日预言者们一直所说的那样——就是中国长期以来发展“过剩”了的房地产，也就是公寓的建造量大大地超过了人们的需求量。
Now housing construction has come to a halt invarious parts of China,and it won't resume until the existing stock of empty homes is finally soldoff. That could take at least a year, probably two. So the economy won't startto pick up anytime soon.
现在中国各个区域的住宅建设都已经慢慢停止了，而且在现有的所有空房都最终销售一空之后，房地产行业才会开始恢复。这至少要花上一年的时间，或者是两年。所有经济不会很快开始回升。
Limited housing construction means weak ordeclining growth in the manufacture of housing materials such as crude steel,cement and plate glass.
有限的住房建设就意味着建筑材料制造业——比如说粗钢、水泥和平板玻璃行业的发展开始疲软，或者说是开始衰败。
That's not the whole story, but it does mean theweakness is concentrated in construction and manufacturing, which just happento be the main components of "industrial production" – an economicindicator the world's financial markets pay great attention to, not leastbecause it's published monthly.
这还不是故事的全部，但是这的确意味着疲软弱势就集中在建筑业和制造业，这也恰好是“工业产值”的主要部分——“工业产值”就是世界金融市场高度重视的一个经济指标，它还是每月都出版的刊物。
Trouble is, industrial production ain't easy tomeasure. It's particularly hard to do in developing countries, which don't havethe bureaucratic infrastructure we have and where the shape of the economykeeps changing, not to mention the extra problems in measuring it monthlyrather than quarterly.
麻烦的是,工业产值不容易衡量。而要在发展中国家做出衡量则更是困难,因为发展中国家没有我们所拥有的官僚主义的基础设施,而且他们的经济形态也在不停变化。这样就更不用说要测量出其每月的问题，还不仅仅是每季度的了。
This has prompted some in the markets to suspecta conspiracy rather than a stuff-up, and allege the Chinese authorities aremaking the numbers up. They may not be as reliable as we'd like, but don'tbelieve that.
这就引起一些市场对阴谋产生怀疑，而不是去进行填补了，并指控中国当局是在数字上做文章。他们可能不像我们想的那样可靠，但是不要相信那些。
Another thing to remember – as people in themarket tend to forget – is that industrial production accounts for only about45 per cent of Chinese GDP. The remaining 55 per cent is in a lot better shape,as a Reserve Bank assistant governor, Dr Christopher Kent, argued in a speechthis week.
另一件要记住的事——也是市场上的人们往往会忘记的——那就是工业产值仅占中国国民生产总值的45%左右。剩下的55%就是出自一些更好的形态，正如储备银行行长助理，克里斯托弗·肯特博士于本周所发表的演讲中所论辩的一样。
By the way, if you're looking for someone totrust on Chinayou could do worse than our central bank. It's well aware of the importance of China to our international prospects and so putsa lot more personpower than most into studying it: six or seven economists in Sydney, plus another two attached to our embassy in Beijing.
顺便说一句，如果你想在中国寻找一位可以信任的人，那做得最好的就是我们的中央银行了。它很好地意识到了中国对我国国际前景的重要性，所以将大部分的人力都投入对此的研究中：悉尼有6、7个经济学家，在加上附属北京大使馆的两个经济学家。
Kent says that although the weakness in China's property and manufacturing sectors isclearly of concern to commodity exporters like Australia,there are a number of countervailing forces supporting broader activity in China.
肯特说尽管中国房地产业和制造业的疲软状态，已经明显引起了像澳大利亚这样的大宗商品出口国的关注，但也依然有很多与此相对的力量在支持着中国更广泛的活动。
"First, growth in the services sector[worth about 45 per cent of GDP] has been resilient, and should continue to beassisted by a shift in demand towards services as incomes rise," he says.
“第一，服务业的增长[价值约占国民生产总值的45%]一直都很有弹性，而且在收入增长的同时，应该继续以向服务业转向作辅助，”他说道。
"Second, growth in household consumptionhas also been stable in recent quarters, aided by the growth in new jobs. Ofcourse, such outcomes cannot be taken for granted; if the industrial weaknessis sustained, it might eventually affect household incomes and spending.
“第二，近几个季度以来，由于新就业机会的增长，家庭消费的增长也一直很稳定。当然，也不能将这种结果看作是理所当然的事情。”如果工业疲态一直持续下去的话，它最终可能还是会影响到家庭收入和支出。
"Third, Chinese policymakers have respondedto lower growth by easing monetary policy [access to loans] and approvingadditional infrastructure investment projects.
“第三，中国决策者对低速增长所采取的回应措施是放宽货币政策[贷款渠道]，还有批准额外的基础设施投资项目。”
"They have scope to provide further supportif needed, although they may be reticent to do too much if that compromiseslonger-term goals, such as placing the financial system on a more sustainablefooting."
“如果有需要的话，他们有一大堆方式可以提供进一步的支持，尽管在要在长期目标上——比如说要将经融体系放置在一个可以更加持久的基础之上这样的目标上作出妥协时，他们可能会很谨慎。”
So what does this mean for us? The substantialslowing in industrial production has contributed to the further decline thisyear in the prices we get for our exports of coal and iron ore. (Of course, thebigger reason for the lower prices we're getting is the substantial increase inthe supply of these commodities from places such as Australia.)
那么这对我们而言意味着什么呢？工业产值上的大幅放缓导致了我国今年煤炭和铁矿出口价格的进一步下滑。（当然，我们得到更低价格的更大的一个原因是，来自澳大利亚等地的这些商品的供应量大幅增加。）
Kent says that what transpires with China's industrial production, and in Asia more broadly, will have a big influence on how muchfurther commodity prices fall.
肯特说中国工业产值方面所发生的事情，在亚洲而言就更广泛了，这些事情将会在大宗商品价格的继续下跌上产生重大影响。
And the changing nature of China's development – a higherproportion of services and lower proportion of goods – limits the potential forcommodity prices to go back up.
而中国发展变化的本质——服务业所占比例更高，商品所占比例更低——限制着大宗商品价格的回升潜力。
But here's the good news: Kent reminds us that the shift in demand towardsservices and Western agricultural products in Chinaand Asia more broadly presents newopportunities for Australian exporters.
但还有一个好消息：肯特提醒我们说中国和亚洲对服务业的需求转变，还有对西部农产品的需求转变，都为澳大利亚出口商带来了更多的新机会。
As recently as the mid-noughties, China'sGDP was growing at the rate of 10 per cent. This is why money-market types areshocked to hear it's now growing by only 6.5 per cent, let alone 4 per cent.
在21世纪前十年，中国的国民生产总值是以10个百分点的速度增长的。这也就是为什么在听到增长速度只有6.5个百分点的时候，货币市场类型倍感震惊了，更不要说只有4个百分点了。
But this just shows that even money-market typescan be innumerate. As the distinguished former economic journalist AnatoleKaletsky has reminded us, China'sGDP today is $US10.3 trillion ($14.5 trillion).
但这仅仅只是显示出，即使是货币市场类型也可能是不识数的。正如著名的前经济记者阿卡里兹曾提醒过我们的那样，中国现在的国民生产总值是10.3万亿美元（14.5万亿澳元）。
In 2005 it was $US2.3 trillion. So even just 4per cent of $US10.3 trillion is much more than 10 per cent of $US2.3 trillion.
在2005年的时候，其国民生产总值是2.3万亿美元。所以即使是只有10.3万亿美元的4%，也比2.3万亿美元的10%要多。
To the Chinese, what matters most is the rate atwhich GDP is growing. To the rest of us, however, what matters is the size ofthe absolute addition the Chinese are contributing to gross world product.
对中国人而言，重要的是国民生产总值的增长速度。而对余下的我们而言，重要的是中国对世界生产总值所作出的贡献的大小。
评论
Yep goodcall Ross, commodities prices are just stupid bears who aren't reflecting thetrue picture in Chinaon the way down like they did on the way up....oh wait
没错。说得好，Ross，大宗商品的价格就是那些愚蠢的熊们不能像反映走上坡路的中国那样，反映出正在走下坡路的中国现状……喔等等
Commenter
K
Location
Date andtime
November21, 2015, 6:18AM
How couldanyone buy a doom and gloom story in China.. a country of 1.3 billionpeople that manufactures the majority of the worlds goods, and will bemanufacturing for the foreseeable future.. has not yet had a major focusinternally of their population.. one should look more at our our debt ladensituation..
怎么可能会有人相信中国已经前景黯淡了呢。这个拥有13亿人口的国家，生产着世界产品中的大部分，还将为可预见未来继续生产。。但还尚未将注意力主要集中到他们的内部人口上。。而我们应该更关注自己的负债状况。
Commenter
Lookwhere?
Location
Date andtime
November21, 2015, 6:38AM
Theprogressive Robb has a unique solution, allow China to buy us instead.
进步分子Robb有一个很独特的解决方式，作为代替，就让中国来买我们的东西吧。
Commenter
Geronimo
Location
Yippee YiYo
Date andtime
November21, 2015, 8:52AM
Anyonewho thinks this will go forever should look at Japan. By the late eighties theywere doing the same things that are happening in China now and other places to keeptheir economy expanding, producing massive asset bubbles which then collapsedin the early nineties.
所有认为这一切将会永远持续下去的人，应该看看日本。在80年代末，日本当时所做的，也就是现在正发生在中国和其他地方的，都是用以来保持他们的经济扩张，制造巨大的经济泡沫，然后这个泡沫在90年代早期破灭了。
Commenter
Ken
Location
Date andtime
November22, 2015, 9:56AM
So Rosswhen should we start to buy the Chinese doom and gloom stories, pray tell?
那么Ross，我们应该什么时候才可以相信中国已经前景黯淡了的故事呢？请你告诉我们。
Commenter
Sean
Location
Date andtime
November22, 2015, 10:57AM
I candetect a distinct wobbling in the Chinese economy, usually called a dumplingwobble. Pockets of the markets have started to become sweet then sour. Soon thefinancial centres in Chinawill stir and fry.
我可以察觉到中国经济有明显的摆动，通常称其为饺子摆动。市场口袋已经开始变甜，之后就会发酸。很快中国的金融中心就会爆炒、油煎了。