美国军事最可怕的噩梦:与中俄(同时)开战
2016-08-28 14:41:36
美国在上个十年的后期放弃了其经常被误解的"两场战争"学说,该学说为同时进行两场地区战争提供了模式范例。这个学说是美国为与诸如在向伊朗或者伊拉克开战时防止朝鲜同时发动战争(反之也如是)而设计的,冷战后美国不再需要面对苏联的威胁,国防部的采购、后勤与战略基础均基于这个想法。美国因为国际体系的变化而放弃了这个学说,这些变化包括中国之崛起和高效的恐怖网络之蔓延。
Political Coordination
政治协作
Flexibility
灵活性
On the upside, only some ofthe requirements for fighting in Europe and the Pacific overlap. As was thecase in World War II, the U.S. Army would bear the brunt of defending Europe,while the Navy would concentrate on the Pacific. The U.S. Air Force (USAF)would play a supporting role in both theaters.
好的一面是,欧洲与太平洋方向的作战需求只有有限的重合点。正如二战那样,美国陆军的主战场是欧洲,而海军的主要方向是太平洋。美国空军在两个方向上提供支援。远程战机,包括隐形轰炸机及类似资产,将会根据需要在两个方向上使用。
Russia lacks the ability tofight NATO in the North Atlantic, and probably has no political interest intrying. This means that while the United States and its NATO allies canallocate some resources to threatening Russia’s maritime space (and providinginsurance against a Russian naval sortie,) the U.S.Navy (USN) can concentrate its forces in the Pacific.Depending on the length of the conflict and the degree of warning provided, theUnited States could transport considerable U.S. Army assets to Europe to assistwith any serious fighting.
俄罗斯无力在北大西洋与北约作战,很大可能也无此政治意愿。这意味着美国及其北约盟国可以调配部分资源威慑俄罗斯海域(防止俄方海上袭扰),美国海军可以将大部分军力集中在太平洋方向。取决于冲突的长短及威胁的程度,美国可以将可观的陆军资产转移到欧洲以应对任何大战。
The bulk of Americancarriers, submarines and surface vessels would concentrate in the Pacific andthe Indian Oceans, fightingdirectly against China’s A2/AD system and sitting astride China’s maritimetransit lanes. Long range aviation, includingstealth bombers and similar assets, would operate in both theaters as needed.
美国航母、潜艇及水面舰艇的主力将会集中在太平洋与印度洋,直接攻击中国的A2/AD反介入和区域封锁武器系统,扼守中国的海上运输通道。
The U.S. military would beunder strong pressure to deliver decisive victory in at least one theater asquickly as possible. This might push the United States to lean heavily in onedirection with air, space and cyber assets, hoping to achieve a strategic andpolitical victory that would allow the remainder of its weight to shift to theother theater. Given the strength of U.S. allies in Europe, the United Statesmight initially focus on the conflict in the Pacific.
美国军方将会迫切需要在其中至少一个方向上尽快取得决定性的胜利。这将迫使美国将大部分的空中、太空及网络资产投入其中一个方向,以便在获得战略性和政治上的胜利后,将中心转移到另外一个方向上。由于美国欧洲盟友力量强大,美国可能会首先聚焦于太平洋上。
Alliance Structure
盟国构成
U.S. alliance structure inthe Pacific differs dramatically from that of Europe. Notwithstanding concernover the commitment of specific U.S. allies in Europe, the United States has noreason to fight Russia apart from maintaining the integrity of the NATOalliance. If the United States fights, then Germany, France, Poland and theUnited Kingdom will follow. In most conventional scenarios, even the Europeanallies alone would give NATO a tremendous medium term advantage over theRussians; Russia might take parts of the Baltics, but it would suffer heavilyunder NATO airpower, and likely couldn’t hold stolen territory for long. Inthis context, the USN and USAF would largely play support and coordinativeroles, giving the NATO allies the advantage they needed to soundly defeat theRussians. The U.S. nuclear force would provide insurance against a Russiandecision to employ tactical or strategic nuclear weapons.
美国在亚太的盟友与欧洲区别甚大。尽管对某些欧洲盟国的承诺有些担心,美国没理由会因为维护北约盟友的完整而孤独作战。美国打起来,德国、法国、波兰及英国都会跟上。对于大部分的场景而言,甚至欧洲盟友就能够独自给予北约对俄罗斯极大的中期优势;俄方可能会攫取部分波罗的海国家领土,但它将在北约的空中打击下损失惨重,长远而言很可能守不住那些盗取来的土地。在这种情形下,美国海空军将会主要扮演支援及协调角色,增加北约的优势、从而完胜俄罗斯。美国的核力量将会用于阻止俄罗斯使用战术及战略核武器。
二战后美国打败的两场大规模战争都与中、苏有关。朝鲜战争:美(联合国)Vs中、苏;越南战争:美Vs中、苏。美国与中俄(同时)开战,是不是最可怕的噩梦,历史就那摆着呢